Propagating shocks and transitions across networked food systems: Insights from multiplayer microeconomic modeling

Abstract

Accelerating global change is affecting coupled natural ecosystems and human activities in every part of the world. The local and regional expressions of these changes are a product of interacting and networked systems such that a shock, trend or development transition in one region, ecosystem, or sector can propagate impacts to other regions, ecosystems, and sectors. Informed adaptation and development strategies require an understanding of how signals propagate through these coupled systems and regions. Here, we synthesize findings from our work in Ethiopia and Mali, where we developed and applied a modeling system designed to capture cross-sector dynamics of networked food, water, and energy systems at subnational scale. We approach the problem using a multiplayer microeconomic model that accounts for diverse objectives through chains of food production, distribution, and consumption that connect resource regions to market regions. This paper draws lessons from three case studies in Ethiopia and one in Mali that are designed to examine impacts of a subnational climate shock (drought), a centralized national policy decision (export restrictions in response to food shortage), a distributed development strategy (solar-powered groundwater irrigation), and an external intervention (food aid). In each case, we consider how an initial signal propagates through the country via markets, infrastructure, and interactions between economic actors. An understanding of this propagation can inform strategies for food security in a changing climate.