Heterogeneous impacts of temperature extremes on climate attitudes and Green voting

Resumo

In the past decade, the public in Europe has become more concerned about climate change and expresses stronger proenvironmental policy preferences. Based on data from the European Social Survey (2012–2022, 25 countries), we show that the increased exposure to temperature extremes has contributed to the observed changes in climate change attitudes and electoral support for environmentalist policy platforms. For each additional degree of excess temperature experienced during warm spells measured over the previous 12 mo, we find that the probabilities of being worried about climate change, of feeling responsible for climate change, and of voting for Green parties and Green coalitions increase by 4.0 [CI95: 2.5, 5.5], 2.5 [CI95: 1.1, 3.9], and 2.8 [CI95: 0.9, 3.7] percentage points respectively. We also document significant heterogeneity across individuals, based on gender and education, particularly between highly educated women and low-educated men. While the latter group consistently exhibits the lowest proenvironmental attitudes and voting, it is this group that shows the strongest increases when exposed to temperature extremes, converging toward the levels of their more educated counterparts. Further regional heterogeneity analyses reveal that the effects of warm temperature extremes are smaller in less prosperous or economically disadvantaged regions, as well as in regions with greenhouse gas emission levels above the median. The findings suggest a nuanced interplay between individual factors and contextual influences in shaping climate attitudes of European citizens and their motivations or reservations toward greater climate action.